St. Johns County housing market: September 2026

According to realMLS data published by the St. Johns Citizen, 396 single-family homes closed in September, down 11.4% from 447 a year earlier, while the median sale price rose 2.5% to $573,750. Active listings fell 27.2% year over year to 1,469, though new listings ticked up and months of supply edged from 3.6 to 3.7. The backdrop is a sharp rise in mortgage rates: Freddie Mac's 30-year average climbed from 6.71% in the first week of September to 7.03% by Sept. 24, and stood at 7.32% on Oct. 22.

Key numbers: September 2026 (single-family, St. Johns County)

Source for this block: realMLS data provided to the St. Johns Citizen (published Oct. 19, 2026). NEFAR's own Oct. 8 release, compiled earlier from the same MLS, reported slightly different figures: a $568,750 median (down 0.5% from August), 390 closed sales, 519 new listings, 1,456 active listings, 3.7 months of supply and 42 median days on market. The gap reflects when the data was pulled; the direction is the same in both. We use the later pull because it includes year-over-year comparisons.

Prices

The headline is stability. A median of $573,750 is 2.5% above September 2025 and essentially flat with August's $571,499. NEFAR's earlier count put the month-over-month change at a 0.5% dip, which tells you the same thing from a different angle: prices are holding in a narrow band rather than running up or falling.

St. Johns remains the priciest county in Northeast Florida. In NEFAR's September release, its single-family median was well above Duval ($345,000), Clay ($355,000) and Nassau ($496,500), and the region-wide median of $399,000. Its Home Affordability Index slipped to 77.5, meaning a median-income family would fall short of the income needed to qualify for a median-priced home with 20% down.

Price per square foot told a slightly softer story, at $249 in September versus $252 in August. That is a small move, but it is worth noting alongside the flat median: buyers are not paying more per foot month to month.

We could not find a September 2026 single-family versus condo/townhome split for the county from Florida Realtors or NEFAR, so this report covers single-family homes only. For context, Florida Realtors reported a statewide September condo and townhouse median of $293,500, down 1.8% year over year.

Inventory and competition

This is where September looks different from what many people expect. Active listings were down 27.2% from a year ago, to 1,469 single-family homes, and months of supply, at 3.7, is still below the roughly six months generally considered balanced. In August, active inventory was 1,450, down 32.5% year over year, so the year-over-year gap narrowed a bit in September.

Sellers did come back to market. New listings rose to 521, up 11.3% from August and 4% from a year ago. At the same time, new pending sales fell to 363, down 13.6% year over year. More homes coming on and fewer going under contract is usually how supply starts to build.

Competition was mixed. The median home sold in 42 days, faster than the 46 days of September 2025 but slower than August's 40. Sellers received 97.6% of list price, and 11.4% of closings went above asking, up from 9.7% in August. Per realMLS, the $400,000 to $499,999 range had more above-asking sales (16) than any other price band, a sign that the entry and middle tiers remain the most contested.

New construction vs. resale

The MLS numbers above mostly reflect resale homes plus the builder inventory that is listed on the MLS; they do not separate new construction, and we did not find a sourced September split. What we can report is the builder activity announced this fall.

KB Home opened Sebastian Oaks on Oct. 15 near Lewis Speedway and U.S. 1 in St. Augustine, with single-family homes from the low $300,000s and no CDD fees, according to the company. PulteGroup said it closed on 295 homesites for Canopy Cove, its first St. Johns County townhome community, near World Golf Village, with an opening planned for January 2027; it will have HOA fees but no CDD, and pricing was not announced. In the Greenbriar Road area of Northwest St. Johns, the county reports that PineWalk is planned for about 2,000 homes, with Dream Finders, Taylor Morrison and Sekisui House involved and Taylor Morrison sales expected to begin in 2027.

For buyers, new construction matters most below the county median. A builder starting price in the low $300,000s sits far below the $573,750 resale median, though finished price, lot premiums, HOA and CDD costs all change the comparison. Master-planned communities such as Nocatee remain a major part of the county's new-home supply.

Rates and affordability

Rates moved against buyers through September. Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed average went 6.71% (Sept. 3), 6.76% (Sept. 10), 6.95% (Sept. 17) and 7.03% (Sept. 24). It reached 7.40% on Oct. 8 and Oct. 15 before easing to 7.32% on Oct. 22. A year earlier, the rate was 6.19% in the week of Oct. 23, 2025, and it ranged from 6.26% to 6.50% in September 2025.

Because closings lag contracts by roughly a month or two, most September closings were likely locked before the rise to 7%. The pending-sales drop is the better early read on how buyers are reacting, and the October numbers will show more.

On insurance, Citizens Property Insurance's approved 2026 rate change for St. Johns County was a 7.7% decrease, effective July 1, 2026, for new policies and at renewal, as compiled from the county-by-county table. Citizens is the insurer of last resort and holds a small share of policies here; your premium will depend on roof age, wind mitigation and flood zone, so get quotes early.

What it means for buyers moving here

Expect a market that is calmer than the peak years but not a bargain bin. With 3.7 months of supply and sellers getting 97.6% of list, there is some room to negotiate, more on homes that have sat, and less in the $400,000s, where above-asking sales clustered.

Get a pre-approval at today's rate and run your budget at a slightly higher one; rates moved more than half a point in seven weeks. If you are comparing resale against new construction, ask builders about rate buydowns or closing-cost help, and compare total monthly cost including HOA, CDD, taxes and insurance rather than sticker price alone. Communities differ a lot, so start with our guides to Nocatee, Ponte Vedra Beach, St. Augustine, World Golf Village and Northwest St. Johns.

What it means for sellers

Prices are holding, but the buyer pool is thinner. New listings are rising while pending sales fall, which means more competition among sellers heading into the slower late-fall season. Pricing to the market at the start, rather than testing a high number, matters more than it did a year ago, and homes in good condition are the ones getting the 42-day, near-list outcomes. If your home sits above the median, expect buyers to be especially rate-sensitive.

Our take

This is our reading of the numbers above, not a forecast. September looks like a market where low supply is holding prices up while higher rates are slowing demand. Prices are up modestly from last year (2.5% in September, 3.9% in August), but closed sales fell 20% year over year in August and 11.4% in September, and new pending sales were down 14.3% and 13.6% in those months.

The thing we are watching most is supply. Active inventory was down 32.5% year over year in August and 27.2% in September, and new listings went from a 15.4% annual decline in August to a 4% gain in September. If listings keep coming while pendings stay down, months of supply will drift toward balance and prices could flatten. If sellers pull back again, tight supply could keep the median near where it is.

Rates are the other variable. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was about a point higher on Oct. 22 than a year earlier (7.32% versus 6.19%), and the full effect of the late-September climb should show up in October and November closings. October data is expected from Florida Realtors around Nov. 16, according to its release schedule, and NEFAR typically publishes earlier in the month.

Our practical advice: if you are relocating in the next six months, focus on what you can control, such as a solid pre-approval, a clear sense of which part of the county fits your commute and schools, and insurance quotes before you go under contract. Don't try to time a big price drop; the data so far doesn't point to one.